Thursday, June 9, 2011

Europe Needs Shock and Awe, But...

Marc Chandler submits:
Various news wires are reporting leaks of the IMF/EU/ECB review of Greece. Apparently they are concluding that the implementation of the conditions for last year's aid package have ground to a halt.
They are also concluding that the Greece economy is weaker than they had previously thought. Earlier they had assumed Greece would contract 3.5% this year, and now it is 3.8%. Next year's growth was also revised down to 0.6%, roughly half of what they had previously forecast. Weaker growth of course has a knock on the fiscal situation.
The media leaks suggest that the Troika projects Greece's financing needs to be about 170 bln euros 2012-2014 (inclusive). Where is this going come from? Here is where there are conflicting reports and numbers. There will be almost 60 bln from the first package that will be rolled up into Greece Aid 2.0. Officials seem to be counting on about

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