That was one ugly Friday for economic reports. Among the slew of bad reports, the Reuters/Michigan Survey of Consumers declined so much that the survey director, Richard Curtin, stated: "Whenever the Expectations Index has been this low in the past, the economy has been in recession."
Has the recession started?
Many economic indicators have been trending down but they don't seem to be in recession territory yet. We can classify indicators into three categories: No recession forecast, trending toward recession, and in recession. A list of some of the more important ones is below:
No Recession Forecast
Trending Toward Recession
- Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index
- Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index
- ISM Non-manufacturing Index
- Composite Leading Indicators (CLI) OECD
So what does this mean?
The LEI includes the yield curve so it's
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