Monday, January 31, 2011

Chicago PMI Jumps to 20-Year High, Consumer Spending Rises

Bondsquawk submits:

By Maulik Mody

Consumer spending increased more than forecast in December, making the last quarter the best one of 2010. Spending increased 0.7% in the last month, following a 0.3% gain in November. Personal income grew for a third month in a row, continuing to grow at 0.4%. Although income and spending continues to grow, the pace is moderate making the recovery very slow. The Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditure Core Price Index, was flat in December after advancing 0.1% in November.

However, data continues to show that manufacturing activity is gaining and is driving the recovery in the U.S., as seen in the Chicago Purchasing Manager index, which jumped two points in January to 68.8 from 66.8 in December. This is the highest level since 1988, as most components of the index came in stronger. New orders came in at 75.7, much stronger from 71.3, while employment strengthened to 64.11 from 58.4. These are reportedly the highest levels these components have reached since 1984. While production also picked up, inventories declined from 60.0 to 54.5.

The ISM-adjusted index increased to 65.6 from the high 65.0 in the previous month. The ISM manufacturing index is expected to level off a bit in January. The other regional manufacturing surveys have been mixed, with Kansas and Richmond declining, and Philly and New York increasing. The Chicago PMI index has remained the leader among the regionals, now nearly 10 points above the average of 56.1 for the four other


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