Monday, April 18, 2011

TIPs vs. Treasury Bonds: The Five Year Outlook

David Ott submits:
The Bond Market?s Crystal Ball
In March 2009, the financial crisis was in full swing and Federal Reserve Chairmen Ben Bernanke went on 60 Minutes to try and calm the nation?s nerves.
At one point in the interview, Bernanke was asked, ?You?ve been printing money?? and he responded, ?Well, effectively.?
Bernanke?s comment, along with the Fed?s decisions to lower short term interest rates to near zero, keep them there and then purchase $2.1 trillion dollars in bonds through a process known as quantitative easing, has rightly caused the world to worry about rising prices.
And yet, two years after that 60 Minutes interview, inflation is still tame. Since that time, through the end of February, inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose by 4.56 percent or 2.36 percent on an annualized basis, well below the long-term trend, which is close to three percent.
This data includes the

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