Thursday, April 28, 2011

'New Depression' Not Over Yet

Howard Richman submits:

According to preliminary estimates released this morning by the BEA, economic growth slowed dramatically from 3.1% during the fourth quarter 2010 to just 1.8% during the first quarter of 2011. The following table shows the contributors to aggregate demand for American products, and how they have been changing:

Contributors to Real GDP Growth
Year 2010-1 2010-2 2010-3 2010-4 2011-1
Household Consumption 1.31% 1.53% 1.66% 2.78% 1.90%
Business Fixed Investment 0.41% 2.19% 0.19% 0.86% 0.09%
Government Consumption -0.31% 0.75% 0.75% -0.33% -1.04%
Net Exports -0.26% -3.37% -1.70% 3.23% -0.06%
Inventory Change 2.48% 0.75% 1.59% -3.17% 0.83%
Total Change in Real GDP 3.7% 1.7% 2.5% 3.1% 1.8%

Government consumption is now a drag on aggregate demand, as state and local governments are being forced by their balanced budget requirements to tighten their belts. During the third quarter of 2010, governments added 0.75% to economic growth, but in the fourth quarter they subtracted


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