Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Shorts Can Cut a Check on Paychex, Longs Also Should Watch Action

Brooks McFeely submits:

We like the historical data on both sides of the trade for Paychex (PAYX) in its post-earnings share performance, but we see a slight advantage for shorts watching the stock in tonight's after-hours.

PAYX is set to report its Q3 results after the closing bell tonight, and analysts polled by Thomson Reuters are expecting the company to report a profit of $0.35 per share on revenue of $528 million.

In looking back at PAYX session-to-session performance following after-hours earnings, we've found the stock is typically a decent next-day mover. It has put up more aggressive percentage closing moves in next-day trading following 15 of the last 24 earnings events that we've tracked. Near term, the stock is mixed, widening twice and reversing direction twice over the last four quarters.

Looking deeper into the performance data, PAYX hasn't recorded too many earnings-driven after-hours upside moves, but when it does it consistently


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