Saturday, March 12, 2011

A Potential 'Coasean Bargain' for Conoco Phillips?

Craig Pirrong submits:

The spread between Gulf Coast oil prices (such as Louisiana Light Sweet) and West Texas Intermediate (at Cushing, OK) remains wide. The March LLS-WTI spread is $14.42/bbl, and is above $10/bbl through October, 2011.

The key to restoring spreads to more typical levels is breaking the logistical bottleneck south of Cushing, thereby permitting Canadian oil that is weighing on prices in the Midcontinent to flow to the Gulf. The extension of the Keystone pipeline will help do that, but not for a couple of years. Another way to ease the logjam is to reverse the Seaway Pipeline, now flowing from the Gulf to Cushing, to carry crude in the opposite direction.

This can have large social payoffs. Here are some back of the envelope calculations. Assume the marginal cost of moving oil on Seaway is $1/bbl, and a LLS-WTI spread of around $12/bbl when no oil flows south. Also assume


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