Christine Swanson

Sunday, March 6, 2011

February NFPs Confirm Improving Employment Situation

The Fundamental Analyst submits:

We don?t want to get too carried away but February?s NFP report continued the trend of a slowly improving employment market in the US. Non-farm payrolls grew a seasonally adjusted 192k and positive revisions to December (+31k) and January (+27k) added a further 58k to total payrolls. This is a decent number but you need to see at least this much job creation and better on a sustained basis to show significant improvement in labor market conditions. Given weather issues, you might want to add January and February together and take an average, by that metric we have monthly gains of about 127k, not what you?d call strong but you also need to consider that the BLS could be understating job growth in the same way they understated job losses during the recession. With weather issues out of the way March will possibly be a better indicator.

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